I see others are now coming to the same conclusions. As the Fide consultant, an even the Chess.com consultant. And the worlds for most expect on cheating in chess Ken Regan. GM Hans Niemann did not cheat against GM Magnus Carlsen.
Re: anti-cheating, a community project?
Post by dkappe » Wed Sep 28, 2022 7:53 pm
I’ll reproduce my analysis here.
* A “good move” is a move whose eval is within 100 cp of the best move
* A “match” is a chosen move whose eval is within 5 cp of the best move
* A “goof” is a chosen move whose eval is 200 cp or more worse than the best move
Note: scores are produced with a multipv at depth 20 of stockfish from 9/18/2022
Note: a goof is a move 200 cp or more worse than the best move.
Note: a match is a move within 5 cp of the best move.
Note: positions are categorized by choice — 1 good move, 2-3 good moves, 4+ good moves
Note: we skip positions with only one move
Note: we skip the first 8 moves
Carlsen:
48 total positions, 27 (56.25%) total matches, 3 goof(s)
one good move: 12 (25.00%), matched 9 (75.00%)
2-3 good moves: 11 (22.92%), matched 6 (54.55%)
4+ good moves: 25 (52.08%), matched 12 (48.00%)
Niemann:
49 total positions, 39 (79.59%) total matches, 3 goof(s)
one good move: 20 (40.82%), matched 16 (80.00%)
2-3 good moves: 13 (26.53%), matched 10 (76.92%)
4+ good moves: 16 (32.65%), matched 13 (81.25%)
Carlsen really played poorly. Niemann had lots of positions with little choice.
This was my conclusion as well. I see zero red flags to support GM Magnus Carlsen's cheating accusations.
GM Hans Niemann played as a normal GM player of his grade. GM Magnus Carlsen played his worst game in years.
Was Grandmaster Magnus Carlsen brain washed by his own beliefs, I do not know, but what is clear is GM Hans Niemann did not cheat in his game with GM Magnus Carlsen.
And that is the justification for the most powerful man in chess GM Magnus Carlsen. To destroy the chess career of a 19 year old kid GM Hans Niemann.
If GM Magnus Carlsen wants to dispute this claims by Fide, the USCF, and Ken Regan the chess anti-cheating expert to both Fide, and Chess.com.
GM Magnus Carlsen needs to show his proof, or any evidence that GM Hans Niemann cheated in his game.
As that was the claim by GM Magnus Carlsen that provoked the actions of GM Magnus Carlsen to destroy GM Hans Niemann chess career in GM Magnus Carlsen's own statement to the world.